Joshua's Place

Conventional wisdom says that only the top-tier candidates have a chance at winning the Republican nomination for President. I have to object to that claim. Just who does the media think they are, that they get to decide who the top-tier candidates are? The reason the “so-called” second-tier candidates are second-tier is the media. The name of the game, right now, is name recognition. The media covers some candidates more than other candidates. Then they go out and conduct polls. Logically, those candidates who are better known will get more support in those polls. It’s a catch-22. A candidate will have a hard time gaining support in polls if they do not get as much media coverage. And they won’t get more media coverage if they don’t make gains in the polls. These second-tier candidates have to really excel at every appearance they make to even make a blip on the national radar screen. Mike Huckabee is doing just that. He is the candidate that is really excelling at every oppurtunity. And I think this will translate to higher poll numbers, and even more media coverage in the coming weeks and months. Here’s why.

At every debate thus far, the “so-called” second-tier candidates are given much less time to speak than the “top-tier” candidates. Frank Luntz, a communications expert who has analyzed every debate thus far, reports that Mike Huckabee has wowed his republican panel with his speaking ability, and his ability to connect with voters on a personal level. The enthusiasm level when Mike speaks at the debates has been much higher than the other candidates. Mike is able to articulate what I think many republicans have been thinking for a long time. It is something that we conservatives have been wanting to hear from Washington for a long time. Something that is rarely heard.

Huckabee came in second in the Iowa Straw Poll, even after being outspent by his oponents by more than 10 to 1. After his stunning victory, his campaign contributions came pouring in. So did the interest in his campaign. People who were on the fence decided that Mike was now a viable candidate. I think some of the nay-sayers are going to be very surprised with the next FEC report. I predict Mike will have raised several million by the time the report is made. When that report is made, even more people who are on the fence will support Mike, because they will want to be part of a winning team.

Now lets analyze some recent polls.

If you take a look at some of the real clear politics poll averages, Fred polls in the lower 20’s, while Rudy comes in second with about 17%. Romney takes about 13%, and McCain pulls in 9%. Newt, who has not even announced that he is a candidate pulls in up to 11% in some polls. Huckabee polls anywhere from 7 to 9% The other candidates take about 3% leaving about 10% for undecideds.

With those numbers in mind, think about this scenario. Newt Gingrich has said several times that he likes Mike. He has also said that there is a very good chance that he won’t run. After Solutions Day, it is possible that Newt will endorse Huckabee. If even half of Newt’s supporters, plus half the undecideds were to switch to Huckabee’s camp, he would be polling ahead of Romney. As more people see that Huckabee is a viable alternative, people from other camps will also switch. A lot of people are endorsing Fred Thompson because they think he is the only conservative that can win. I do not think he can win. He has absolutely no charisma, as evidenced by his recent speech at the recent Michigan Mackinac Convention. He also has some issues with social conservatives. Mike is the real deal.

Huckabee won the recent values Voter debate. He started off with 35% of the vote before the debate, and jumped to 63% after the debate, and was one of only 2 candidates to gain votes post debate. This means that when Mike is well known to a particular audience, he places higher in the polls. The Evidence are the debates, and the Iowa straw poll. Once he gets his message out to those undecideds, his number of supporters will only increase.

Yours truly, Joshua Clinard @ 9:02 pm